Joshua Tree, California
Location: Mojave Desert of California
Annual Visitors: 4 million
The JT region is less than a 3-hour drive from the largest counties by population in California and the US.
The Joshua Tree region is less than a 3-hour drive to the largest counties by population in the US:
Los Angeles County - 10.4 million ppl
San Diego County - 3.38 million ppl
Orange County - 3.17 million ppl
Riverside County - 2.47 million ppl
San Bernardino County - 2.18 million ppl
These additional major counties & cities are also within a 3-hour drive:
Maricopa County, AZ - 4.48 million ppl
Clark County, NV - 2.26 million ppl
City of Las Vegas + Henderson - 934,889 ppl City of Phoenix - 1.63 million ppl
Joshua Tree is also directly en route from all of these counties to Phoenix, AZ
Demographics
Who Are They?
The demographic of the Joshua Tree visitor has evolved over the last few years from middle-aged, middle-income, outdoor-activity-focused park visitors, to a younger, more affluent, leisure-focused demographic.
The shift is partially due to the Instagram phenomenon paired with the uniqueness of the surrounding landscape and bolstered by the travel trend of taking more frequent trips, closer to home. This growing trend was further fueled by the pandemic and restrictions placed on long-distance travel.
What Do We Know?
On average the typical JT visitor is Southern California based, 24-44 years old, $137k - $194k household income, coming as a couple or group of 4 people & staying for 2 nights. This largely Millennial demographic happens to have the highest MPC (marginal propensity to consume) of any traveler demographic, which creates the ultimate qualified + captive audience scenario for CYC.
Additionally, the adjacent town of Twentynine Palms is home to the country’s largest U.S. Marine Corps base, bringing a large volume of servicemembers and their families to the area.
Social Media
The biggest contributing factor to the massive growth of visitation to this region is driven by the unique & highly photographic (“Instagramable”) landscape of the park and surrounding area and subsequent discovery by a broader demographic through social media. Additionally, many mainstream fashion and lifestyle brands have included more outdoor-themed lines to capitalize on the growing camping and outdoor-focused trends. Joshua Tree has been the backdrop to thousands of photoshoots over the last few years.
The popularity of the national park and region on social media coupled with the growing trend of using social media as a vetting tool for lodging creates an incredible opportunity to capitalize on the discoverability and attention the region already receives.
The inherent uniqueness of CYC, from an architecture & design aspect, novelty & juxtaposition of sea-meets-desert will in itself attract a large portion of the demographic CYC will target in future marketing efforts.
1,818,754 annual posts with the hashtag #joshuatree
531,670 annual posts with the hashtag #joshuatreenationalpark
Short-term Rental Stats
Based on current Airbnb data, despite the well-documented growth in visitation to the area, rental growth in the market has increased by only 10% in the last 3-years. Listings in the 95th percentile for rate (>$400/night) remain at 100% occupancy throughout the year which speaks to the extent to which the demand-supply gap for higher-priced accommodations has grown in recent years.
Short-term rental demand has also grown significantly year over year, with seasonality becoming less of a factor: for example, august of 2019 had 8,202 listing nights booked compared to august of 2020 that had 15,239 listing nights booked, resulting in an 86% increase.
The months of March, July, August & November had over 15,000 nights booked.
Lodging spend makes up 37% of the local economy at over $56 million annually.
Every month of 2020 saw more than 12,000 listing nights booked
Historically, listings in the 90th percentile see over 95% occupancy.
The high rate of listing nights booked shows that a large number of Joshua Tree National Park visitors remain overnight in the area during their visit. The lack of mid-range to luxury hotels and dining options close to the park entrance drives many visitors to Airbnb, VRBO & comparable home/vacation rental options.
• 927 available listings
• $193 ADR
• 81% annual occupancy
• 100% occupancy of 95th percentile listings
• large demand growth from and less seasonal variance (despite pandemic)
• 4 months in 2020 with over 15,000 listing nights booked
COVID-19 & Future Travel
The majority of the statistical information on visitation, spending, demographics, and other key points used in our research analysis is based on pre-pandemic travel trends. However, the Joshua Tree area seems to lie outside of any norms associated with the downturn in the travel and hospitality sectors. This anomaly is due to several factors - Driving proximity to the largest counties in the US by population, a drastic reduction in air travel which spurned a massive increase in road trips, and the fact that most activities offered in the area are outdoor (covid-friendly).
Recent polling data and general sentiment within our target demographic points to a growing desire for more experience-focused travel destinations, that are within driving distance, as the next type of trip the polled audience would consider. Much of the commentary viewed on social media, travel forums and other outlets allude to a broader demographic discussing that simply not having the option to regularly travel has pent-up a greater desire to. Essentially an adage of “We want what we can’t have, even if we didn’t want it before.”
From a public poll conducted in December 2020 by Airbnb, they found that travel is the out-of-home activity Americans have missed the most, with 54% planning to travel in 2021. Additionally, they discovered that for 2021 travel, a majority (56%) prefer domestic or local jaunts, versus just 21% who prefer international destinations. Interest in car travel was highest, beating interest in air travel by double digits. That’s a shift from 2019 when travel distances over 3,000 miles were Airbnb’s most popular segment.
The US Travel Association’s week-by-week analysis on tourism economics found that while travel sentiment declined somewhat this week (FEB 7-14, 2021), travel sentiment overall remains in one of the better positions it has been since the start of the pandemic. Noting that half of American travelers indicated they are excited about travel in the near term and 55% of American travelers are in a “ready to travel” state of mind. Additionally just under half of American travelers expect to travel for leisure in the next three months, with most waiting until at least April. Of those traveling in the near term,
44% are only considering domestic destinations and 38% are focused on less crowded places
The ongoing recovery of the hospitality industry looks to be underway & all of the supporting data suggest that creating a unique accommodation experience in the Joshua Tree area is an opportunity to meet the growing demand for a region that is already facing a deficit of hotel supply.
In February of this year, both CrowdStreet & GreenStreet, 2 global leaders in commercial real estate trend spotting publicly projected a FULL recovery back to 2019 revenue levels for the hotel industry by 2024. They both go on to support our premise that we will continue to see a shift away from large group travel, including conferences & conventions, to smaller group & leisure travel as well as a shift away from city-centric hotel & resort spend to more nature immersed boutique experiences, particularly those with primary feeder markets within driving distance.
